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Nigeria faces 31,400 excess heat deaths as El Niño intensifies — Report

Nigeria could record 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 as an unusually strong El Niño drives temperatures above normal levels, a Climate Impact Lab report has warned.

By Babatunde Ademola Fadewo

2 min read 0 views Updated Oct 23, 2026
Nigeria could record about 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 as an unusually strong El Niño intensifies extreme temperatures, according to a report by the Climate Impact Lab. The projection places Nigeria among countries expected to suffer the heaviest mortality burden from the current weather phenomenon.

The report, titled “451,000 at Risk: Where Action Can Save Lives During the Super El Niño,” projects 66,800 additional heat-related deaths across the Sahel during the six-month period, with nearly half expected in Nigeria. Sudan is projected to record 17,500 additional deaths, Niger 10,000 and Chad 8,000.

Researchers estimate that Nigeria could record about 15,400 additional heat-related deaths between December 2026 and February 2027 alone. Globally, the report projects about 451,000 excess heat deaths between June 2026 and February 2027 as land temperatures rise around 1.2°C above normal and the number of extremely hot days increases significantly.

The projections were developed by combining seasonal temperature forecasts with research examining the relationship between heat and excess mortality across 24,378 regions worldwide. The figures represent deaths above what would normally be expected during corresponding months, using the 1996–2025 period as the baseline, and are projections rather than confirmed fatalities.

The researchers urged governments to strengthen heat early-warning systems, cooling centres, hydration support, protections for outdoor workers and healthcare preparedness. They warned that timely intervention could prevent thousands of deaths, particularly in vulnerable communities with limited access to reliable electricity, water and healthcare.

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Summary

Nigeria could record 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 as an unusually strong El Niño drives temperatures above normal levels, a Climate Impact Lab report has warned. Nigeria could record about 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 as an unusually strong El Niño intensifies extreme temperatures, according to a report...

Key takeaways
  • Nigeria could record 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 as an unusually strong El Niño drives temperatures above normal levels, a Climate Impact Lab report has warned.
  • Nigeria could record about 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 as an unusually strong El Niño intensifies extreme temperatures, according to a report by the Climate Impact Lab.
  • The projection places Nigeria among countries expected to suffer the heaviest mortality burden from the current weather phenomenon.The report, titled “451,000 at Risk: Where Action Can Save Lives During the Super El Niño,” projects 66,800 additional heat-related deaths across the Sahel during the six-month period, with nearly half expected in Nigeria.
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Nigeria could record 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 as an unusually strong El Niño drives temperatures above normal levels, a Climate Impact Lab report has warned. Nigeria could record about 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 as an unusually strong El Niño intensifies extreme temperatures, according to a report...

Who published this story?

Glow 99.1 FM published this story with Babatunde Ademola Fadewo listed as author.

When was it published?

October 23, 2026

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